Rising’s tougher route to the playoffs will provide a boost to the side as it takes on Sacramento Republic tonight, according to interim head coach Blair Gavin.
Unlike Phoenix, whose group saw four teams still in contention in the final week of play, Republic’s group was sewn up early with two weak MLS reserve sides providing little resistance in the standings.
“I would say that what’s been nice about our schedule is that the bracket wasn’t determined for a long time, and so when we played the likes of San Diego and Orange County, those teams were desperate for points,” Gavin said. “Those teams were looking and needing to win. So there is definitely an understanding of what a team who is desperate [looks like], and I think that’ll pay off for us, especially in this game. To what extent, I’m not sure, but at least our guys understand what the intensity looks like, and I’m hoping that we can start fast knowing that information.”
A fast start could be critical, given Phoenix’s sluggish performances out of the gate. Out of the eight regular home games this season, Rising has conceded first in four of them; and the opening goal in all four was scored in the first 15 minutes.
While Republic has found the net in the opening minutes on several occasions this season, they’ve also fallen behind four times before getting up to full speed, as highlighted by California-based reporter Alicia Rodriguez.
“[Sacramento’s] persistent struggle has been to concede very early in games.”, Rodriguez said. “Somehow they’ve managed to claw back results even when they go down early, but it’s not something that can be sustainable. If Phoenix score in the first ten minutes Saturday, not only will Sacramento be chasing the game, there will be a sense of ‘here we go again.'”
Sacramento will likely look to keeper Rafael Diaz to help them out in that regard. He’s got an impressive 77.8% save success rate this year, and has broken through to start with regularity for the first time in his three years with Republic.
“He became the starter midseason when the original starter suffered a torn ACL,” Rodriguez said of Diaz. “He kept the team in several games earlier this season nearly singlehandedly, and while it would need to be a team effort if Sac Republic were to upset Phoenix, I think Diaz would need to play an especially big role in that.“
Almost as important is the backline in front of him. Don’t expect anything too unusual. They’ll almost certainly play a typical line of four. Based on recent games, you can expect to see Jordan McCrary – a 27-year-old in his second season with the team who isn’t afraid of pushing forward – on the right hand side. Salvadoran international Juan Barahona has looked to make that left hand spot his in recent games, and he’s certainly not unfamiliar with silverware after winning four league titles and two national cups back in his home country.
In the middle of defense, Tómas Hiliard-Arce has been a near constant feature in his first season after leaving LA Galaxy II. Dekel Keinan, the former Israeli international and Cardiff center-back and 2019 skipper, has also played there in three of the last four matches.
Similar to Rising, expect to see a midfield trio for Sacramento.
“The relatively unusual aspect to the team is having a fluid midfield with central midfielders who are expected to play a thoroughly two-way game,” Rodriguez said. “In this way, there isn’t a designated No. 10, with playmaking responsibilities shifting game to game, and sometimes moving to different players in the XI.”
Jaime Villarreal, who like Hiliard-Arce came to Sacramento via Los Dos, is expected to feature in that midfield. Part of the matchday 18 for every single match this year, he’s scored twice in the last month. Rodrigo ‘RoRo’ Lopez aadds an experienced head to the middle of the park. He was Republic’s first ever signing back in 2013, and rejoined the team this season. A player who could round out the trio is former Rising player, and occasional singer, Andrew Wheeler-Omiunu (you can read more about him here).
The real danger from Sacramento, though? Their attack.
“They have basically six top players for their front four spots that are all capable, that would play on many teams, so they pose a big threat,” Gavin said in midweek. “They can line up in a lot of different ways just based on personnel, so I’m sure Mark [Briggs] over there will have a game plan against us to to bring out key matchups for them.”
Among those options is 24-year-old Polish winger Dariusz Formella, the team’s current top scorer with 8 goals. Capped internationally through to U-21 level, Formella is no stranger to silverware, winning a league title and two Polish SuperCups with Lech Poznan, plus the Polish Cup with Arka Gdynia.
Another big threat is Kharlton Belmar, a pacy and strong forward, who can play on either flank or as the man up top. His presence is rarely good news for Rising fans, as he’s scored five times in just seven appearances against Phoenix and Arizona United.
Bulgarian-born Villyan Bijev has featured in each of Republic’s matches this season. He moved to California as a child, but later made the transatlantic move to Liverpool’s academy. At Anfield, he sadly didn’t make the cut, but he could pose a threat to Rising, having scored four goals and recorded two assists since mid April.
Republic fans also have one of their own to cheer for tonight, with local boy Cameron Iwasa a serious threat up top. The 5-foot-10 forward is the club’s all-time record scored, with 51 over 140 appearances in all competitions.
If he features, left-winger Sam Werner could set off a battle of Bozeman natives, as Rising’s Zac Lubin also hails from the Montana city. Werner has scored just once this year, which is a significant drop-off from his seven goals and five assists in 2019 for the visitors.
A decent choice option off the bench is recent loan acquisition Frank Lopez. The Cuban, who defected during the 2015 Olympic Qualifiers, made his debut a month ago, and is still awaiting his first Republic goal. He knows where the net is, though having scored 27 over the two previous seasons with Los Dos.
From the Ashes Prediction: The hosts have goals in them, and while I can see them conceding, it won’t be many. 3-1 to Rising, setting up a trip to Reno next week.