OPPONENT WATCH: New Mexico United

Cup action takes center stage at Casino Arizona Field this evening, as Rising welcome New Mexico United in the second round of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup.

The oldest national soccer competition in the U.S., this is a single elimination tournament, with a place for the August 2019 Cup Final winner in the CONCACAF Champions League.

84 teams entered the 2019 competition – 32 amateur teams, six USL League One teams, 25 USL Championship teams, and 21 MLS teams (the latter enjoying a bye to the fourth round).  USL teams directly owned and operated by MLS teams are ineligible from participating in the competition.

OPEN CUP RISING

Rising’s results in the Open Cup since the club rebranded in 2017 have been somewhat disappointing.

Last season, Rising suffered a major upset away to Sporting AZ, who compete in the Southwest Conference of the USPL.  Chris Cortez had given Rising a 65th minute lead at Chandler Gilbert Community College, but Sporting’s versatile forward Danny Arrubla equalized two minutes later, taking the game to extra time and penalties.  The hosts eventually won the shoot-out 5-4, Kody Wakasa missing a sudden death penalty for Rising.  The giant-killing was particularly surprising given the team selected by Carteron.  Woszczynski, Mala, Vega, Riggi, Cortez, and New Mexico’s current joint top scorer Kevaughn Frater all started for Rising, with Awako, Dia and JJ all called upon as substitutes.

In 2017, Rising at least managed to survive until the third round.  A 3-1 victory away to PDL club Fresno Fuego was followed by a 2-1 home defeat to the San Francisco Deltas (NASL).  Kody Wakasa, Eric Avila, and Mike Seth scored for Rising in Fresno.  Omar Bravo put away an 85th minute equalizing penalty against the Deltas, only for Rising to concede the winner in the fourth minute of stoppage time.

HEAD TO HEAD

Rising and New Mexico in total have drawn 11 regular season games in 2019, but that’s not an option tonight.  A winner is guaranteed, via extra time or penalties if need be.

Given both sides predominance of draws, it’s no wonder Rising and New Mexico shared the spoils in a six-goal USL Western Conference thriller in the Valley back on March 16.

Both teams started in a 4-1-4-1 formation that spring Saturday night.

Santi Moar
Santi Moar in action for Bethlehem Steel v Cincinnati © Hayden Schiff CC BY 2.0

Santi Moar gave the visitors a 16th minute lead with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.

Rising drew level with a 29th minute Solo Asante penalty, but Frater’s left-footed shot from distance a minute later restored the visitors’ advantage.

Another penalty, this time for a foul on Junior Flemmings, was calmly dispatched by Solo Asante early in the second half.

However, Rising once again backed off and allowed the impressive Santi Moar to surge forward and score with a powerful shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner.

Thankfully for Rising, a 71st minute Jason Johnson header from a Junior Flemmings cross rescued a point for the home team.

With two of United’s three goals last time coming from perfectly-placed shots from outside the penalty area, Rising’s defenders and midfielders will need to be at their sharpest tonight, and resist the urge to back off.  Over 46% of New Mexico’s shots this season have originated outside the box, including 44% on the road.

New Mexico incredibly convert 23.8% of their shots – that’s the second highest conversion rate in USL, and highest in the Western Conference.  It’s also almost double Rising’s shot conversion rate of 13%.

Unlike RGV last Saturday, New Mexico are also known for the quality of their passing (78.5% success rate).  Rising’s passing success rate of 81%, though, is even better.

Patience will be the order of the evening.  If Rising are trailing at half-time, home fans at least can take comfort in the fact that New Mexico are most likely to concede in the second half.  To date, United have let in 12 goals in the second half, compared to only four goals in the first half.

Fans can also look forward to a physical battle tonight.  United have conceded the second most fouls in both USL conferences – 156 compared to Rising’s 132.  Less successful in the tackle than Rising (64.3% compared to Rising’s 74.6%), New Mexico have collected 4 more yellow cards and one more red than the home side.

statsPHXNM

LAST TIME OUT FOR THE VISITORS

New Mexico United come into tonight’s game on the back of a 2-2 draw in El Paso on Sunday.  Former Rising loanee Sam Hamilton and midfielder Ryan Williams scored for New Mexico, who had trailed twice and saw Santi Moar sent off for violent conduct in the 72nd minute.

NMEP goals

There were five changes to the New Mexico line-up last Sunday in El Paso, compared to their starting XI against Rising back in March.

Yearwood and Schmidt were replaced by Manny Padilla and Sam Hamilton in defense against El Paso.

Padilla joined New Mexico from Houston Dynamo, and was the 89th overall pick in the 2018 MLS SuperDraft.  He played once for Dynamo last season in the Open Cup, and also clocked up 19 USL appearances on loan to RGV.  Padilla replaced Yearwood at half-time in United’s previous road trip to the Valley.

Sam Hamilton needs no introduction to Rising fans having starred on loan from Colorado Rapids alongside Kevon Lambert in 2017 season.  Released by Rapids at the close of the 2018 season, he is more likely to feature in defense than midfield for New Mexico tonight.

Midfielders Williams and Goodman who featured against Rising were replaced by Saalih Muhammad and Toni Soler last Sunday.

California-native Muhammad played USL soccer for Penn FC in 2018, after an injury-ravaged season with the San Francisco Deltas.  He made a brief appearance in the previous game against Rising, replacing Frater in the 75th minute.

Toni Soler is an attacking midfielder who played for six lower league Spanish teams in eight years before moving to Albuquerque.  An unused substitute against Rising in March, Soler has featured in seven games to date, four of them as a starter.

Joint top-scorer Kevaughn Frater (currently on 7 goals) was replaced by winger Chris Wehan in Texas.  Wehan joined United from Reno 1868 and has already bagged 3 goals in 8 appearances for the visitors.  Two of Wehan’s goals came in a 3-0 home win over San Antonio on May 5.  The other was scored in a 5-1 demolition of Monarchs in mid-April.

Elsewhere, it’s difficult to predict the extent to which New Mexico coach Troy Lesesne will rotate his lineup.  Former USL Goalkeeper of the Year nominee Cody Mizell has starred in all 11 games this season, with a 69.2% save success rate and two clean sheets.  The former Charlotte Independence and Tampa Bay Rowdies 27-year-old was capped 17 times at U.S. youth level, but could be replaced by 22-year-old Ben Beaury tonight.  Another former Charlotte Independence player, Beaury is still awaiting his USL debut.

Captain Josh Suggs has also clocked up all 990 minutes to date in defense.  He’s created the most chances (16) of any player on the New Mexico roster, so Rising will hope he is rested tonight.  Suggs has plenty of USL experience acquired at Orange County Blues and the Colorado Springs Switchbacks – the latter as captain.  He has already collected 3 yellow cards this season.  Will Coach Lesesne risk a fourth card tonight?

Two other United players have appeared in all 11 games to date, but not for the full 90 minutes per game.  These are midfielder David Estrada and joint top-scorer Santi Moar.

Estrada is a former DC United, Sacramento Republic and Charlotte Independence player.  He enjoyed his best return in a season in 2018 with 11 goals for Sounders 2.  Still to get off the mark for United, Estrada has nevertheless contributed one assist in 840 minutes game time in 2019.

Santi Moar proved a constant thorn in Rising’s side in March, and was possibly expecting a well-earned rest tonight.  Dismissed for violent conduct last Sunday, the suspension does not kick in until the weekend, so don’t be surprised to see the Spaniard feature tonight.  Four of Moar’s goals this season have been scored with his right foot, two with his left foot, and one with his head.  His only goal scored from outside the box, though, was at Casino Arizona Field.  Rising will need to be on their guard if Santi Moar plays tonight.

From the Ashes Prediction:  Rising to scrape through in extra time, to set up a home third round tie against the Switchbacks or FC Denver on May 29.