Louisville has only lost three games at home this season – to Pittsburgh, Toronto II and Cincinnati. Looking at these defeats, how can Rising make it four?

First, Rising shouldn’t worry about losing the possession game. City averaged 55% possession across the season (home and away), but it was almost 64% in those 3 home defeats. After scraping just 33% possession against Orange County, Rising should be used to playing in such a way.

It’s also worth noting that Louisville managed their average number of shots on target against these three teams.

So what was different? In each of these games, Louisville took a lot more shots, which saw their accuracy rate drop dramatically.  On average, around 47% of Louisville’s shots have been on target in 2018.  Against Cincinnati, this fell as low as 25%.

This lower shot accuracy was in part because Louisville were forced to shoot more than normal from outside the penalty area.  Throughout 2018, only 17% of their goals were scored from there.

At the other end of the field, all 6 goals conceded came from a shot to the goalkeeper’s left hand side. All were from open play, and most came from quick breaks.

This suggests that Rising should allow Louisville to pass the ball around and control the tempo, but try to keep them out of their own penalty area. Rising then need to try to catch the hosts on the counter.

In the two home defeats against Toronto II and Cincinnati, goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh also made just one save compared to five goals conceded. He usually saves two in every three shots on goal.

It’s important to note that those latter two defeats were the start of a different tactical approach from Louisville – a 4-2-3-1 formation introduced by newly-appointed head coach, John Hackworth. The switch to playing with four at the back may have had an impact.

Finally, Louisville played without Cameron Lancaster for most of the game against Pittsburgh; and USL First Team central defender Paco Craig was an unused substitute against Toronto II. With Lancaster potentially set to miss Thursday’s game, Rising will be hopeful.

So do Rising have it in them to win? Most definitely, but this will also be the toughest opponent they have faced all season. Much will rest on Coach Schantz’s ability to set out a gameplan, and the players’ successful execution of it.

From the Ashes Prediction: Somebody’s going to go home with a Cup.