Playoffs are here, and that means that for nine teams in the USL’s Western Conference, the season is over.
Before the remaining clubs take to the field, From The Ashes is taking a look at each of the each of the quarter final games.
To make things a bit more interesting, rather than focus on each team’s 34-game regular season, we’re going to imagine a league in which only the eight playoff teams took part.
How would that look? Here’s how the table would have finished:
Standings based on games between playoff teams
| W | D | L | PTS | ||
| 1 | Real Monarchs | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic |
7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Reno 1868 |
6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Saint Louis | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Portland Timbers 2 |
6 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Orange County | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Phoenix Rising |
5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Swope Park Rangers | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
The top two have played 14 games against playoff rivals; the others 15 games.
Only one of the sides – Sacramento – occupies the same position as the regular season table. The biggest shock is that Orange County has dropped from top spot down to 6th – reflecting their incredibly average record against top teams this season.
Unfortunately for Rising fans, there are few positives to take from this. Only one side – Swope Park – has fared worse against playoff rivals, with Phoenix picking up just one win for every three games played.
The differences between this and the real table show one thing – the playoffs really are going to be a lottery. Teams that have underperformed in our playoff rivals table were more clinical against lower-ranked teams, whereas those that have overperformed dropped needless points against weak teams. Nobody (except perhaps Sacramento) has proven consistently dominant.
Take Real Monarchs as an example: despite finishing top of the playoff table, they finished 4th in the 34-game regular season. Over the past month they lost to Colorado Springs and Los Dos. If they’d have won both those games, they’d have clinched 1st seed.
Now, let’s look at a different table. This one looks at the success of each team in their last 5 games against playoff rivals.
Form table (last 5 games against playoff teams)
| W | D | L | PTS | ||
| 1 | Sacramento Republic |
4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Orange County |
4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Monarchs |
2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Phoenix Rising |
2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Reno 1868 |
2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Saint Louis |
2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Portland Timbers 2 |
2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Swope Park Rangers | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
This table also underlines how random the playoffs could be. Three of the teams come in with a clear trend – Sacramento and Orange County are performing well against playoff rivals, and Swope Park is playing poorly.
Beyond that, everybody is just…meh. The remaining five teams have two wins apiece, and just two points separate 3rd and 7th place. This table is of little use as a guide.
So what can we expect from this weekend’s games?
THE REPLAY
Less than one week since they ended the regular season at Rising Soccer Complex, Portland and Phoenix will face off in a game of firsts. It’s the first time that Rising, or any of its past incarnations, has hosted a playoff game, and it’s T2’s only playoff appearance to date.
Rising has been at the top of the table for most of the season, and only just let the top spot slip away in the last three matches. Some players’ heads may have dropped as a result, and they do not have the best record against playoff rivals; but Rising should have gotten more out of those matches, especially last Saturday.
T2 may have been winners last week, but they had struggled beforehand. They can be dangerous but have rarely looked exceptional. Even in their victory over Rising, it took a late, somewhat scrappy goal to claim the three points, and they could easily have conceded beforehand.
Rising won the Providence Park encounter 4-1, and if they can overcome their attacking struggles of the last few weeks, they should take this match. Otherwise, this one could go the distance in the desert.
THE TOSS-UP
Salt Lake’s second team has been an impressive force in the Western Conference for the past two years, but so has Reno. Both teams were knocked out in the first round last year, so history will be made with a first playoff victory for whoever takes this quarter final tie.
Monarchs started this season looking like their old selves, and seemed destined for top spot. It didn’t quite work out that way, and late results saw them drop to 4th, but they’ve recorded good results against playoff sides.
Reno’s confidence will be sky-high after their 3-1 win over Orange County last week. They’ve performed fairly well against top sides this year, and will be formidable opponents. They also haven’t lost since early September.
This season’s meetings have been split – Reno took their home match 3-0, but Monarchs enjoyed a come-from-behind 2-1 victory at Zions Bank Stadium. Who will win this game? Who knows, but that’s what the playoffs are all about.
THE POTENTIAL UPSET
In theory, the top seed should have the easiest start to the tournament, but that hasn’t played out in the history of the Western Conference. Since the playoffs were regionalized in 2015, every 1st seed has lost their first playoff game. This year’s encounter could throw up a similar result.
When you look deeper into Orange County’s results, they’ve only achieved 5 wins in their 15 games against top sides. Treat this statistic with caution. OC performed far worse at the beginning of the season against the top sides, but they are hardly the powerhouse that their seeding would suggest.
Saint Louis, on the other hand, are undersold by their seeding. They’ve proven their ability to hold their own against top opposition, and only one playoff team succeeded in beating them twice (Rising).
Both games between these sides this season ended in score draws. If there’s going to be an upset in the West, this could well be it.
THE STRAIGHTFORWARD ONE
In October 2017, these two sides met in Kansas City for a Western Conference semi final. Swope emerged 1-0 winners that day on their way to the Cup final, but don’t expect the same result this time.
Sacramento are one of the most consistent teams in the league. They’re also coming into this game on the back of a very impressive run of form, making them a legitimate title contender.
Swope Park? Well, don’t expect too much. Despite their 7th place finish, Swope have made the playoffs thanks to a series of good results against sides at the bottom of the table. With just three wins against playoff sides all season, and none in their last five encounters, things are looking fairly dismal for Sporting’s reserve squad.
Sacramento won both encounters this season 3-1. Expect a similar tale in this game.
(All times are Arizona time)
From the Ashes Semi Final Lineup Prediction:
- Sacramento Republic v Phoenix Rising
- Reno 1868 v Saint Louis