A 3-0 victory over Miami FC has left Tampa Bay Rowdies as the most likely regular season champion for the 2021 USL Championship season.

Although they are currently level on points with Phoenix Rising, the Floridian side owns the tiebreaker thanks to a win in the sides’ only head-to-head clash this year.

Rising can only now catch up should Rowdies drop points in their last two games, but with trips to Loudoun and Las Vegas – two of the three worst sides in the league – that doesn’t look likely.

But just how much does top spot really matter in terms of playoff success?

How the top seed has fared

The current incarnation of USL started in 2011 as USL Pro, a merger between the old First and Second Division leagues after several sides left to form the revamped NASL.

In the early days, the regular season trophy had a title: the Commissioner’s Cup. That name has since been abandoned, likely as the league simply doesn’t have a ‘commissioner’. Fans regularly refer to the title now as the Supporters’ Shield, but that name isn’t officially recognized by the league office and is simply borrowed from MLS.

Whatever you call it, obtaining the best record in the regular season record has one clear advantage: a guarantee to play in front of your home fans for however far you make it in the playoffs.

However, it hasn’t often turned out well.

Just three of the nine USL playoff titles have gone to the regular season counterpart: Orlando City in 2011, Rochester Rhinos in 2015 and New York Red Bulls II in 2016. The regular season champion in 2020 – Reno 1868 – was no longer active in the playoffs once the tournament was abandoned, so top seeded teams would have won just 30% of the titles so far.

Since Red Bulls II’s victory in 2016, no top-seeded team has made it to the playoff final. In 2017, Real Monarchs crashed out at the first opportunity, and every regular season champion since has fallen in its second playoff match.

Looking back prior to 2011 is difficult, with a plethora of league structures, points systems and other rules in play. However, between 1991 and 2010, only three teams that amassed the largest regular season points haul ended the playoffs as champions in USL’s predecessor leagues.

Home field does matter, though

Of course, that isn’t to suggest that there isn’t an advantage to finishing higher up the table.

From 2011, only one team has won a playoff final while on the road. That honor goes to Real Monarchs, who bested Louisville 3-1 at Lynn Stadium (not to be confused with Louisville’s current ground, Lynn Family Stadium) in 2019.

Again, this is something repeated throughout USL’s history. While there are some added complications – such as finals being played as a best-of-three series, or over two legs – the side with some form of home field advantage clinched the cup 15 times out of 18 between 1991 and 2008.

So while Rising might be on the back foot when it comes to sealing the regular season title, it may not prove to be the most important thing after all.

Instead, they might just want to keep their fingers crossed for Tampa Bay to keep up the recent trend and crash out prior to making the title match.