An unbeaten run of 10 games, including a current streak of 4 wins, has certainly seen Phoenix live up to their name as they continue to rise up the table. With 5 games remaining, they have their sights set on a top 4 spot that would seal home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs. But is it really achievable?
To test if Rising are in with a real chance, I created a simple model to predict how the season will end. The model uses the number of goals each team has scored and conceded at home and away to work out the likelihood of individual score lines. It does have its flaws – for example, draws (ties) are rarely predicted because there are fewer potential score lines that could result in draws than wins. However, the model certainly gives us some idea about the probability of match results.
Here’s the predicted final table for the USL Western Conference using this model:
| W | D | L | PTS | ||
| 1 | Real Monarchs | 20 | 6 | 6 | 66 |
| 2 | Reno 1868 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 64 |
| 3 | Swope Park Rangers* | 18 | 7 | 7 | 61 |
| 4 | Phoenix Rising* | 18 | 7 | 7 | 61 |
| 5 | San Antonio* | 17 | 10 | 5 | 61 |
| 6 | Tulsa Roughnecks | 16 | 4 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | OKC Energy | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
| 8 | Orange County | 11 | 10 | 11 | 43 |
| 9 | Sacramento Republic | 12 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
| 10 | Colorado Springs Switchbacks | 11 | 8 | 13 | 41 |
| 11 | Rio Grande Valley Toros | 9 | 7 | 16 | 34 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders 2 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy II | 8 | 5 | 19 | 29 |
| 14 | Vancouver Whitecaps 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 26 |
| 15 | Portland Timbers 2 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 12 |
*Swope Park and Phoenix finish above San Antonio on wins (the first tiebreaker); but Swope Park will probably beat Phoenix on goal difference (the second tiebreaker).
Rising fans rejoice! We certainly have a chance of making the top 4 – albeit by winning every match. Is that really likely? Phoenix’s schedule is far from the toughest, so winning out isn’t an impossible situation. The hardest challenge will come away to Sacramento Republic (September 30), in which Phoenix has a 38% chance of winning compared to Sacramento’s 36%. Tulsa Roughnecks (October 4) may also provide tough opposition, but their stellar defensive performances at home to date haven’t been replicated on the road. As a result, my model predicts that Rising have a 51% chance of taking the three points against Tulsa.
To finish in the top 4, Rising will need some of the teams just above them to drop points. San Antonio’s trip to play in Tulsa (September 30) provides one opportunity. The model’s prediction for this game is close, but it does tip slightly in the Roughnecks’ favor. The suspension of two San Antonio defenders should certainly make things more difficult for the visitors. Another close matchup is between OKC Energy and Swope Park Rangers (8 October). This is the only draw predicted by the model, but it is nevertheless a game that is within OKC’s reach.
The strangest thing predicted by my model is Sacramento completely collapsing and slipping out of the playoffs. Republic has a total of five games left to play. In four of them (including against Rising), they are tipped to lose, but those results are really too close to call. Treat Sacramento’s final total with some skepticism, as it wouldn’t take an enormous shift for them to finish higher in the table.
There are always risks with statistical modeling, but the indications currently look good. Rising definitely has a chance of sneaking in to the top 4. And if they do? Well, it wouldn’t be wise to bet against a team in that kind of form.
**I will continue to post updates to these projections until the end of the USL Regular Season, as more games are completed.**